This crisis is over – this is our future

You probably have already wondered when the crisis will be over, but you probably also want to know what Europe is going to look like after this “GreatRecession”. Actually there are many different opinions and predictions, and nobody can possibly know what the future is going to be like. But it's still interesting to speculate...

This crisis is (almost) over! The debt crisis that started in 2009 will come to an end very soon, states and governments will have to reduce public expenditure and our social insurance systems will soon belong to the past. If you want a retirement or old age pension you'll have to start saving money when you're young. Take a look at the population pyramid and you'll understand why this is likely to happen: European birth-rates are just too low, and they won't probably change in the future; if you don't have a job or you don't know if you'll be dismissed next week, having children may not be the beast idea.

Actually Germany is the best example of what the (post-crisis) future in other European countries is going to be like (especially in the PIIGS): Germany solved its own crisis at the beginning of the 21^st century by reducing social security benefits and by creating state-subsidized jobs (a worker gets a base salary from his employer but also a couple of hundreds of Euros from the German social security system). Those who don't find a job (and will probably never find one again) get “Hartz 4”- basic welfare benefits which include 382€ per month, housing and health care. Some people have good jobs, some people have “bad” jobs with “bad” salaries and some people just wont' find a job again.

And other countries have recently started to copy the “German Model”: In Spain people who are unemployed receive approximately 400€ per month from the state and, in some cases, “adequate” housing. As the unemployment rate is going to peak at 27% in the near future, only those who are highly skilled will have the chance to find a decent job; many Spaniards will have to work more than 10 hours a day if they don't want to be dismissed. And many of them will have to live on 400€ a month.

You don't believe this? You believe in economic cycles? So do I, but I also think that European companies don't need so many European consumers anymore: they can easily find them in Asia or Latin America.